Unprecedented uncertainty

For the first time in US history the president-elect has no experience in governing or in military leadership. The potential for overconfidence and recklessness is clear. Donald Trump is used to feeling confident in his business decisions, but has yet to experience how different running a country is.

Trump may not have meant to divide the country so deeply with his campaign, or to incite such aggression, but he did. His own voters say they know part of what he said was only for show. Except those who thought the show was for real. And this is what has the world confused. What is for show, what is for real. Does even Trump know the difference? More importantly, does he care enough, and have the capacity, to rule without disrupting the worldwide economy. In the  worst case, could he end up inciting even more war and aggression?

The scariest thing is that the president-elect seems to think that unpredictability makes him stronger. One thing is for sure, it does not make his country stronger.

People can be a lot smarter than you expected and still act just as stupidly as you feared. The million dollar question seems to be, who will Trump trust enough to truly listen to, besides family and close friends? Will the president-elect hold on to grudges longer than the seasoned politicians he name-called?

Those who are quickest to criticize others have a tendency to react badly to criticism of their own actions. A combination of minimal to no government experience, little or no tolerance for disagreeing views, misplaced trust, or no trust in others than family and friends, paired with easy excitability, could be disastrous.

For the financial markets it´s just another day in the office. After the initial shock everybody is out there hoping for the best.

Trade friction, foreign policy missteps and increased focus on populism are mentioned as “downside risks”, but the true fear seems to be that no predictable, relatively stable policy emerges. Persistent uncertainty could derail economic growth both in the US and worldwide as markets brace themselves for new, unforeseen market shocks.

The investors will just readjust their portfolios and move their investments away when necessary. But the people living in the countries affected will have to stay put and suffer the consequences.

I will continue my coverage of the reality show TRUMPs. See TRUMPs the show that trumps all, part 3. The situation calls for it.

I am not making fun of Trump voters. To each his or her own opinion.

A NASTY presidential campaign that leaves a country as divided as the US is today is another story. To quote Mike Pence´s essay Confessions Of A Negative Campaigner,  “A campaign ought to demonstrate the basic human decency of the candidate”.

One can only hope that Trump´s campaign was not a full demonstration of the level of decency we can expect.